Originally Published 2005-04-09 18:11:41
I just did an informal survey using google news to look at recent articles on the real estate bubble and surrounding fears. What I found was disappointing.
- About half were just re-caps of what Greenspan has said recently. Forbes had one worth linking to.
- About a third were just ads for financial planners trying to sell management or financial services (or both) -- trusts, annuities, 1031 loopholes, etc. All of these were doomsday reports. While I laud the authors on their obviously successful strategies at free publicity, I think these articles are shit. You can't trust someone who is on the take, and the convince-by-fear routine makes my skin crawl.
- The rest were mixed. Not very many were positive, however. I didn't find very many folks who said there wasn't a bubble, although the head dude at the California DRE said otherwise.
Personally, I think the run is ending soon, but I do think that the doomsdayers are wrong. There will be a ripple effect throughout the economy, people will be negative for awhile, and all the speculators will pack up and go home (or be forced into buy-and-hold routines, which is based on real math anyway, instead of the speculation-based bigger fool theory). Then sanity will return.
While 100K/year appreciation rates are nice, I think getting all the idiots out of the business is a good thing.
Everyone thinks they're an expert these days. And they're wrong.